Odds on the Fly

[Fonzi]

A player who is new to the game might feel too much pressure to act quickly. In some cases, this pressure is imposed by other players at the table. In others, there's a real clock that you need to beat. Either way, it's nice to be able to quickly calculate what odds you have. That way you'll know your chances to make a hand against an opponent that might have you beat.

A fast, ballpark estimation of odds will generally take you within 2 or 3 percent of the true odds. That should be enough to help you to make up your mind quickly. One of the easiest formulas is:

% chance to win = (# of cards left) * (# of outs you have) * (2)

For example, let's say that you hold the JT of hearts. The flop comes down Qh 9d 3h. This gives you both the straight draw and the flush draw. Your opponent goes all in, which means you need to figure out if you should make the call. You figure that they have top pair, good kicker. So how many outs do you have to make your hand?

Well, the other 9 hearts will win it for you. Plus all non-heart 8's and K's,which is 6 more. That gives you a total of 15 cards that you can catch. With 2 cards left to go, and 15 outs, you have about 60 percent to win here. The real odds are around 57 percent, but this quick and dirty calculation is good enough to make a basic pot odds judgement.

In a more grim example, let's say that you flop top 2 pair against an opponent's low set. Your only hope is to get the higher full house, which means you have 4 outs. Times the 2 cards to come, and times 2. You have about 16 percent to make the better hand according to the quick and dirty method, and real calculations put it at 17 percent.

In the later case, unless you're getting an amazing value for your money, you should have folded. But then again, what are the odds that you would guess that your top 2 pair aren't any good?

If you combine this lesson with that of pot odds, you have a powerful tool. If you're getting 3 to 2 against, and you think you have more than a 40 percent chance to take the pot, you should make the call. But you need to have a pretty good idea of what your opponent has in hand before you can make that determination.

At any rate, the quick and dirty odds calculation is normally good enough in a pinch. It should save you from the clock at both a real casino, as well as online.

Bill Ricardi ? Internet Gaming Guru