Epiphany

[KingBorgo]

Its a little after 1am here, and I've been lying back, thinking about my game as I've been playing very poorly late. An epiphany just hit me. (note: this has nothing to do with my game itself, TRUST ME).

I will be discussing Multi-Table Tournaments (MTTs). These MTTs usually pay 10% (approx) of the entrants. So, when you get close to the payouts, the bubble, a lot of players tighten up. Now, let us delve into that.

The first payout spot pays, AT MOST, double the buyin. So, if the buyin is $20, the most the 1st payout spot pays is $40 (again, a generalization of most tournaments, I know there are exceptions). So, to make this $40, players tighten up to ensure they get that far. Now, is that really a smart play?

Lets do it strictly mathematical. If the tournament pays 10% of the field, you are 9-1 to make the $ (90%-10%). If you are playing solely to make the $, to double your money, and it works out mathematically (yes, I know play is a factor, but odds will even out) you will double your money once every 10 tries.

Now, lets look elsewhere. Lets say you sit at a cash game, and push allin blind. When the cards are turned up, you have 27os, and the guy that called has AA. Bad shape, right? Well...duh. But, how bad? 27os will win 12.5% of the time...or 7-1.

What does this mean? You are better off pushing 72os allin into AA than playing simply to place in the money in a MTT. So, as I always say, GO BIG OR GO HOME. And this is yet another reason why.

[MainStick]

Well it proves that a 1 in 9 chance at doubling your money is a BAD BET.

At a simple level, the math makes sense, but to apply it to "how to play" is a bit of a leap. As in all poker articles, rarely is there one answer to any poker question.. it's all so situational.

I'd say your play style needs to be applied to how your table and seat position plays. And for a tourny strategy, the odds of having certain types of table situations changes based on the tourny and usually the tourny buy in.

Example:

The Pstars 10,000 person freerolls are likely to produce tables full of crazy donkies... where most of your chip situations, require a very tight approach. Playing loose and aggressive is rarely correct when everyone around you is doing the same thing and can't be pushed off a hand.

In the $5k winner take all game on Pstars, playing like a ROCK, would likely make your chances of winning a 20 man tourny far less than 20 to 1.

So, while I like your epiphany... it only applies if you are playing in a tourny where you gauge your skills to be equivelant to those around you (and rarely would any of us ever admit that)... and the ring all-in math.. well, that's just truth in cards...