correct odds for double belly call

[glubbes01@sprintpcs.com]

1-3 no limit live game
6 players see the flop for $15 after button raised to $15
i flop double belly with q/10 - with nut draw to king high. middle position.
all check to button - button bets $50 , large blind raises all in for $93. i fold. button calls. he had about $100 behind, more than large blind. i had both covered.

one question: did i have the right odds to make the call with the implied odds of the button just calling? i had put the button on a steal or top pair with the king.

one observation : i think i should have bet out to thin the field and possibly slow down the button and/or the large blind. turned out the button was on top paid and the large blind on a low end open ender.

[KeepBlinkin]

im not a good ring player... i cant help you whit this one..

[targetguy1]

well with that much action you are behind on the hand imo. its your call if you want to gamble here. what are your reads on the other 2 people?

[KingBorgo]

Lets do the math!

$15 preflop * 6 players + $50 bet + $93 raise (all in) = $233; You are getting $93:$233, or lets say 2.5:1

Now, to hit the hand. You have 8 cards to hit the straight. So, to win, your chance of winning is 8/48 * 2 (chances of hitting), or roughly 33%, so 2:1.

With that said, if you play the hand 3 times, you win it once, lose it twice. When you win it, you win $233. When you lose it, you lose $93 * 2, or $186. $233-$186 = $47.

Every time you make this call, you will have an average win, or an expected value (EV), of +$47.

NOTE: This math is only valuable given the information, which assumes he cannot outdraw you if you hit. However, if there are chances he can hit, this is not exactly correct, yet, in poker, you can only calculate that which you know. (Also, consider the fact had the other guy played too...even better pot odds)

[KeepBlinkin]

i need to learn of poker odds! nice answer kingboro..

[targetguy1]

all i can say well explained.... i lov emath but to much for me to do

[NobleTruths]

Borgo stated it quite well, but with one refinement i would make. Your precentage to make str8 is actually 34.4% This comes from 8/47 (turn) plus 8/46 (river). Your hole cards are #'s 52 and 51, the flop has #'s 50, 49 and 48. That is why I adjusted the numerators in the calculations. Granted, there is not a whole lot different from 33% to 34.4%, but.....I like accuracy.

Also, this is not the same as saying you HAVE a 34.4% chance of winning. This only assumes you MUST catch the str8 to win, and that someone does not catch a better str8, 4 to a flush or boat. Those other nuances will adjust this percentage to some degree.

And, we have to figure that Button will not only call the $93 raise, but will probably push the last $100 he has left. Even with all that, your EV still dictates a call.

[targetguy1]

did you count for the burn cards too?

[KingBorgo]

You do not account for burn cards, nor cards in your opponents hands. You do not know these cards, so you cannot place a value on them, so you must include them in your calculations.

And on a side note: I didnt use a calculator or anything for my calcs, I just did them quickly in my head. +/- 1% at the table is within a good range, so you don't need to be perfect. And I also stated that this assumed that your opponent could not outdraw you if you hit.

[NobleTruths]

Absolutely, Borgo, about the burn cards and your opponents cards. Also, my refinement was not meant as a criticism.