Info on the hand

[KingBorgo]

Setting: I was playing some 1/2 NL at a local casino here in Indiana, the Hollywood. I had just broken from a 3 handed table to fill a 10 seater (it was 5am on a Sunday morning). I had roughly $450 in front of me.

Hand: I am +3 with AhAd, 2 limpers, I raise to $13. 2 behind the button call, BB calls, and limpers call.

Flop: Kd2h3h.

+2 leads out for $70. This play catches me way off guard, as I was anticipating making my own bet. I tank for a bit, contemplate position, and decide that a flat call is best here (for I expect a push behind me, if it is substantial, means a set, esp if villain calls. I flat, and action folds around.

Turn: 5h.

Villain pushes here, for $160. I my range on him was a small set, or something in the range of Kh/QJx. That being a pot size bet, if he has a set, I am drawing to 12. If he has Kh/QJx, I am a huge favorite. If he has some sneaky flush, I am still drawing live to 8, so, at worst, I am 4-1. With the pot laying me 2.3-1, with his range, I decide this is a must call. He turns over Kh6h, and the river blanks.

My question: to maximize my EV, how do I change my play in this particular hand? Is a re-reraise on the flop max EV, because while it gives away my hand, it also does not allow K6 to fold? Do I fold to a heart turn, though I think KhQx or KhJx is played the same way? How do I alter the play of this hand?

[LapLizard]

wow great hand to be discussed, sorry that you ended up on the losing end of this one.

i do not have an answer for you though. EV = Expected Value for those new to poker. I like the idea of the re-raise after the flop, if they have a set then they will call or push and depending on the pot odds they give you would determine whether you fold or call. If the villian just calls i will probably shut the betting down, i would either put them on a set or a flush draw and when the 3rd heart hits the felt i am done with the hand, unless they give me great pot odds for my flush draw.

i play the micro levels usually at 0.05/0.10. so i am usually with very aggressive players, so when i do get AA i bet the amount that allows me to isolate to 1 or 2 players. i also mix up my raises. 5% just call (only with 1 limper in front), 45% raise the usual pre-flop raise (3 to 5 times the big blind) and 50% raise all in (especially when there are already 3 or more limpers). I will usually get 1 caller with a middle to high pocket pair and find that i will win enuff to keep my EV up.

[zatchmo]

shouldn't flat the flop, if you're gonna fish for info you might as well find out by raising the flop. He's not gonna expect aces, I think he may have picked up one of your aces with a K. Raise him all in and put the pressure on him. If he folds, so be it. Can't expect monster pots unless you cooler the hell out of him.

[JamesDaBear]

After he donk bets the flop, there's really nothing you can ever do to get him to fold. The pot is just way too big at that point and he'd have to call... in fact he's the favorite in the hand at that point (and that's giving you the Ace of hearts, which you don't have to have from his perspective). It would be different if he had more money to play with.

The only way you really change the hand is as LapLizard suggests: raise bigger, even all in... or just limp as well. This I hate and I'm not even suggesting you do it, but at least you keep the pot small at a really loose table and can get away from it on the river if he lets you see it cheap. I would have raised it to 10x and been happy to pick up the dead money and not price in the limpers if you do get callers behind you. It's funny that if you raise that big and get two less callers because of it, you actually end up with a smaller pot preflop.

I normally would give a big eye roll to the guy's donk pot bet... but it's kinda good that it committed him to a hand that's never in bad shape to whatever you hold there. I don't really love his turn shove, since it's a value shove and the best hand you could have there is 55, since his having K-high flush makes KK far less likely for you. He's not protecting against anything, and he risks scaring off almost everything that could call there. In fact, you have just about the only hand where you can call that bet. I would probably just bet $80 there and give a hand like AhKx, QhQx or JhJx irresistable odds to call both streets.

I want to remind you though that you actually only had 7 live hearts by the river (3 on the board, 2 in his hand and 1 in yours)... and possibly only 6 (though it's unlikely he has 76h). In this case, you're about 6-1 against to call if he has Kxhh.

I kinda wish you hadn't said what his hand was... because I'd like you to find a fold on the turn there and would like to know whether I'd still advocate it without knowing what his hand is. Even though he does still play top pair and a flush draw the same way on the turn, it's only one end of the spectrum. The other end has three options (made flush, made straight, flopped set) that have you in bad shape vs your pot odds with no implied odds.

[JamesDaBear]

Originally Posted by zatchmo

shouldn't flat the flop, if you're gonna fish for info you might as well find out by raising the flop. He's not gonna expect aces, I think he may have picked up one of your aces with a K. Raise him all in and put the pressure on him. If he folds, so be it. Can't expect monster pots unless you cooler the hell out of him.

How does villain not expect aces after a pre-flop 6.5x raise and a raise of a donk pot bet on a board where straight and flush draws are very possible? You're not taking into account villain's stack size. If hero raises the flop, he's going to get called every single time... unless villain has complete air. Hero would be ecstatic if he got a fold at any point here. In a sense, this hand is already a cooler. Villain had the right odds to call preflop and played it pretty close to perfect post flop.

[dsteele02]

Originally Posted by JamesDaBear

How does villain not expect aces after a pre-flop 6.5x raise and a raise of a donk pot bet on a board where straight and flush draws are very possible? You're not taking into account villain's stack size. If hero raises the flop, he's going to get called every single time... unless villain has complete air. Hero would be ecstatic if he got a fold at any point here. In a sense, this hand is already a cooler. Villain had the right odds to call preflop and played it pretty close to perfect post flop.

This is a tired 1/2 game, nobody at that table is considering he has Aces.

I believe that you played the hand just fine, but IMO I don't believe flatting on the flop is the proper play. Your range for villain is tight, IMO probably too tight, but your range on the rest of the table yet to act after you flat can't be that tight, and as big of a bet as it is, you give any range Kx/heart-heart/45s close to proper odds to chase.

My point being, not that it's 'likely' that somebody is going to have 45s here, but that it's possible, and when you flat you're opening the door for more players to see the turn. On a standard 1/2 drunken/tired table you're probably going to see the bettor + you + at least one more caller to the turn more often than not, which makes your play bad IMO.

A flat kills the potential value of your AA. If you shove the flop the only hand beating you is a set. If, however, you call the flop and get 1+ callers behind, now almost any card that comes off on the turn is scary. I mean, you're hoping in all honesty that any Q/J/T/6/heart doesn't hit the turn. That's a lot of cards to dodge.

So on the turns that the Q/J/T/6/Heart does hit, by your own math it's proper to stack off here (which is correct) but by this point you aren't beating villains range, whereas on the flop you totally dominated a standard 1/2 donks range.

I'm not saying I disagree with your play, but you really set yourself up for a pretty massive crapshoot on the turn. Shoving AA on the flop vs 1 player is +EV. Shoving AA on that turn vs 1 or more players is not +EV, because you just aren't beating enough of villains range.

In the future, make your decisions on later streets easier by thinking of all possible turn outcomes while still on the flop.

All I am suggesting is that in the future you consider my advice, not that you need to change how you played this hand.

Oh, and the Hollywood is my old stomping ground, well before I moved, and it wasn't the Hollywood back then.

[JamesDaBear]

Originally Posted by dsteele02

This is a tired 1/2 game, nobody at that table is considering he has Aces.

No... it's more correct to say the villains aren't considering what he has at all... not that they won't expect him to have aces. This perfectly makes the point that this table is going to be really loose and the two UTG limpers shows this. This makes a larger raise size preflop with this kind of hand mandatory... or the other extreme of limping along and trying to trap a raise from later position. I don't like the raise size because at a really loose table you're giving those initial limpers really good odds to call you when you get callers behind instead of raisers. At that point, you've already turned it into the crapshoot you're advising him to avoid on the turn. I like the flat on the flop, because it's the only way he's going to avoid getting the money in behind... it leaves him the option of folding to a heart on the turn, especially one that completes straights as well. I'm still not seeing how calling the $160 there is mandatory when you're beaten by a heck of a lot, by a whole lot and don't beat much by that much.

[lord nhl]

well if he calls already with K6s this is perfect flop for him,he wanted that one,u wanted that one to come with AA and u hope someone have FD or KQ,KJ,K10 so u can pick up money:)
u canot fold in this situation becouse range of his cards is too big on this flop,every draw every king,bluff or smth......this thing happens many times during one sesion and im happy to get this situation,but when u that one it hurts i know :)

[dsteele02]

James I think you and I agree in principle, we both would like to minimize the gamble involved at an obviously loose table. I think we're just taking different roads to get to that point.

I wasn't saying that it's mandatory to stack off, just that given the money already in the pot and the fact that AA is still really strong on that flop stacking off is statistically profitable.

I think your approach has its pros as its a smaller pot style of play. By raising bigger pre-flop you actually pretty much insure that you're never playing too big a pot unless someone wakes up to a cooler behind you.

My method is a little more high variance because you're playing a pretty big pot almost every time, but by getting it in on the flop you are still a pretty massive favorite against any normal range, and even more of a favorite against this tables range.

My only real point is that you need to decide on the flop whether or not you're willing to get it in or not and then act accordingly. IMO you shouldn't be seeing a turn with chips still in front of you in this situation. I still think that you're not improving with AA often, so you're either ahead or you're behind. If you feel you're ahead, stick it in. If not, fold. Too coordinated a board to just call with that many people behind that could be priced in to chase.

Anyway, like I said I really think we're of a like mind here, just slightly different approaches.

[KingBorgo]

I've come to the conclusion that shipping it on the flop is the obvious must play. My fear of the limpers behind was very overexaggerated. I forgot to take into account my image (physical: young twenty something, hat and drink in hand) that would have made them assume LAG player. While I still lose the hand (results oriented), the EV is increasingly higher by the earlier push.

I have realized the actual reason I didn't: first hand at the table. Its a personal area of discomfort to act aggressively without yet establishing reads on the table, no matter my hand. I need to break that habit.