Betting the River

[Fonzi]

Betting the River by Tony Guerrera and WiseHandPoker

If you don't think, you can't win. Players tend to focus on tough calls when it comes to big poker decisions. But really, every decision requires careful thought. If you have the stone-cold, unbeatable nuts, you still need to put reads on your opponents, so you can figure out the most profitable line of play.

You Have the Best Hand; Should You Bet?

Suppose you're in a hand of limit hold'em. The board is K T 7 8 2. On the flop and the turn, your opponent checks to you, you bet, and he calls. Your opponent checks again on the river. You have KQ, and you think that your opponent missed a draw, has a pair less then tens, has one pair with {KJ, K9, QT, JT, T9, QQ, JJ}, has two pair with {KT, T8, or 87}, or a set with {TT, 88, 77}. With all the missed draws, you're clearly ahead of your opponent's hand distribution. But what's really important here is your opponent's calling/raising distribution.

If your opponent calls or raises with {KJ, K9, QT, JT, T9, QQ, JJ} (58 hand combinations that you beat) and {KT, T8, or 87, TT, 88, 77} (33 hand combinations that beat you), and you fold to a raise, then the expected profit to be derived from betting is 25/91 big bets (about .2747 big bets).

However, if you're against a slightly different opponent who'll fold T9, JT, and QT, your opponent's calling distribution contains only 25 combinations that you beat compared to the 33 that you don't. Though you're way ahead of your opponent's hand distribution, you're behind is calling/raising distribution. Betting here results in an expected loss of 8/58 big bets (.1379 big bets).

Seemingly Small Differences Can Be Huge

.2747 and -.1379 don't seem like huge numbers along with the .4126 difference between them. But limit hold'em is all about being on the right side of many marginal situations. And through that lens, taking only a few hands out of your opponent's calling/raising distribution changed things dramatically. Reading opponents typically applies to putting them on hand distributions, but really, reading opponents is about putting them on hand and action distributions. You can beat 99% of your opponent's hands, but if your opponent is only going to call you with the one hand that has you beaten, then betting on the river is a losing play. Careful thinking on the river when bets are typically largest will contribute positively to your bottom line: may all your value bets carry an expected profit!

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker By The Numbers and coauthor of Killer Poker Shorthanded (with John Vorhaus). Visit him at Killer Poker by the Numbers: Poker Math, Strategy, Coaching, News, Online Deposit Bonuses and More, by Tony Guerrera | Home.