| Borgo stated it quite well, but with one refinement i would make. Your precentage to make str8 is actually 34.4% This comes from 8/47 (turn) plus 8/46 (river). Your hole cards are #'s 52 and 51, the flop has #'s 50, 49 and 48. That is why I adjusted the numerators in the calculations. Granted, there is not a whole lot different from 33% to 34.4%, but.....I like accuracy.
Also, this is not the same as saying you HAVE a 34.4% chance of winning. This only assumes you MUST catch the str8 to win, and that someone does not catch a better str8, 4 to a flush or boat. Those other nuances will adjust this percentage to some degree.
And, we have to figure that Button will not only call the $93 raise, but will probably push the last $100 he has left. Even with all that, your EV still dictates a call. |