| Epiphany
Its a little after 1am here, and I've been lying back, thinking about my game as I've been playing very poorly late. An epiphany just hit me. (note: this has nothing to do with my game itself, TRUST ME).
I will be discussing Multi-Table Tournaments (MTTs). These MTTs usually pay 10% (approx) of the entrants. So, when you get close to the payouts, the bubble, a lot of players tighten up. Now, let us delve into that.
The first payout spot pays, AT MOST, double the buyin. So, if the buyin is $20, the most the 1st payout spot pays is $40 (again, a generalization of most tournaments, I know there are exceptions). So, to make this $40, players tighten up to ensure they get that far. Now, is that really a smart play?
Lets do it strictly mathematical. If the tournament pays 10% of the field, you are 9-1 to make the $ (90%-10%). If you are playing solely to make the $, to double your money, and it works out mathematically (yes, I know play is a factor, but odds will even out) you will double your money once every 10 tries.
Now, lets look elsewhere. Lets say you sit at a cash game, and push allin blind. When the cards are turned up, you have 27os, and the guy that called has AA. Bad shape, right? Well...duh. But, how bad? 27os will win 12.5% of the time...or 7-1.
What does this mean? You are better off pushing 72os allin into AA than playing simply to place in the money in a MTT. So, as I always say, GO BIG OR GO HOME. And this is yet another reason why.  |